Ajax vs Willem II Prediction, Score and Head-to-Head Analysis

NED - Eredivisie

Ajax

5 - 1

Finished

Willem II

Sep 15, 2026, 6:00 PM

Key Match Facts

Our tip
Over 2.5 at 1.24 (82% probability).

EXPERT SCOUT VERDICT

ANALYST VERIFIED

Recommended Tip

Over 2.5
@1.24
Correct Score3-1
Probability82%
Value Edge: +4.2%
Market Role: Volume Play
Risk Level: Low

Tactical Outlook

Ajax plays a high-pressing, possession-dominant style at the Johan Cruyff Arena that naturally forces open defensive structures. Willem II struggles to contain fluid transition attacks, frequently leaving gaps in their half-spaces that Ajax exploit with ease. Expect the home side to dictate the tempo and generate a high volume of high-xG chances from the first whistle.

Lineup Impact

The availability of key creative midfielders for Ajax is pivotal in unlocking the opposition's defensive low block. Willem II will likely rotate in defensive reinforcements to mitigate the threat, but the lack of pace in their backline remains a significant vulnerability against Ajax’s agile forwards. The expected starting XIs suggest a clear disparity in technical quality that will likely lead to multiple scoring opportunities.

Betting Verdict

Given the historical trends of these fixtures, the over 2.5 market is well-supported by Ajax's consistent offensive output at home. While the odds are modest, the reliability of this selection makes it a strong anchor for any accumulator or tactical betting strategy. The matchup heavily favors an attacking display that should see the total goal count surpass the line comfortably.

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Community Prediction

Who will secure the result today?

Match Momentum Engine
Possession
70
30
Exp. Goals
3.36
1.57
Total Shots
33
10
Projected Starting Lineups - Waiting Confirmation

Ajax

26Maarten Paes
2Lucas Rosa
6Thilo Kehrer
15Youri Baas
5Owen Wijndal
18Davy Klaassen
24Jorthy Mokio
8Julian Brandt
23Steven Berghuis
9Kasper Dolberg
10Oscar Gloukh

Substitutes

4Sofyan Amrabat
11Viktor Tsigankov
12Caio Henrique
68Abdellah Ouazane
36Dies Janse
51Charlie Setford
1Marc ter Stegen
3Anton Gaaei
21Jofre Torrents
38Marcos Leonardo
20Oliver Edvardsen
99Tolu Arokodare

Willem II

26Maxime Delanghe
5Hidde ter Avest
3Finn Stam
23Maxim Dekker
24Nathan Tjoe-A-On
6Calvin Twigt
52Tonny Vilhena
22Per van Loon
19Uriël van Aalst
7Jaden Slory
9Devin Haen

Substitutes

2Alessandro Ciranni
83Mats Lemmens
15Amine Et-Taïbi
17Chido Obi
50Eser Gürbüz
31Karst de Leeuw
21Wouter van der Steen
14Jens Mathijsen
18Anass Zarrouk
10Jari Schuurman
28Thomas Verheijdt

Shot Map

Every attempt · all attacks toward the right goal

Ajax · 29 · 2.43 xGWillem II · 9 · 1.55 xG
32' Tonny Vilhena — Miss, 0.09 xG32' Devin Haen — AttemptSaved, 0.21 xG45' Per van Loon — AttemptSaved, 0.04 xG45' Hidde ter Avest — AttemptSaved, 0.02 xG48' Devin Haen — AttemptSaved, 0.27 xG58' Devin Haen — Miss, 0.20 xG67' Calvin Twigt — Miss, 0.03 xG76' Alessandro Ciranni — Goal, 0.68 xG81' Calvin Twigt — AttemptSaved, 0.01 xG4' Kasper Dolberg — Miss, 0.05 xG7' Kasper Dolberg — Miss, 0.10 xG8' Oscar Gloukh — Miss, 0.09 xG10' Jorthy Mokio — AttemptSaved, 0.12 xG14' Kasper Dolberg — Miss, 0.06 xG18' Steven Berghuis — AttemptSaved, 0.02 xG22' Youri Baas — Miss, 0.02 xG28' Oscar Gloukh — AttemptSaved, 0.17 xG34' Thilo Kehrer — AttemptSaved, 0.02 xG35' Davy Klaassen — AttemptSaved, 0.03 xG35' Steven Berghuis — Miss, 0.02 xG37' Steven Berghuis — AttemptSaved, 0.14 xG38' Julian Brandt — Miss, 0.02 xG39' Lucas Rosa — AttemptSaved, 0.07 xG40' Thilo Kehrer — Miss, 0.07 xG40' Steven Berghuis — AttemptSaved, 0.03 xG41' Davy Klaassen — Goal, 0.19 xG50' Oscar Gloukh — AttemptSaved, 0.02 xG56' Oscar Gloukh — Miss, 0.05 xG65' Sofyan Amrabat — AttemptSaved, 0.02 xG65' Oscar Gloukh — AttemptSaved, 0.07 xG66' Youri Baas — AttemptSaved, 0.05 xG66' Jorthy Mokio — AttemptSaved, 0.05 xG69' Viktor Tsigankov — Goal, 0.19 xG74' Oscar Gloukh — Goal, 0.46 xG87' Jorthy Mokio — Miss, 0.03 xG88' Oscar Gloukh — AttemptSaved, 0.16 xG88' Abdellah Ouazane — AttemptSaved, 0.10 xG90' Abdellah Ouazane — AttemptSaved, 0.02 xG

Ringed dots are goals. Hover any dot for minute, player, shot type and expected goals (xG).

Ajax vs Willem II Questions

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