Almería vs Burgos CF Prediction, Score and Head-to-Head Analysis

ESP - LaLiga2

Almería

2 - 1

Finished

Burgos CF

Oct 3, 2026, 2:15 PM

Key Match Facts

Our tip
Home Win at 1.61 (75% probability).

EXPERT SCOUT VERDICT

ANALYST VERIFIED

Recommended Tip

Home Win
@1.61
Probability75%

Tactical Outlook

With little recent head-to-head history between these sides, current form and home advantage carry extra weight in this ESP - LaLiga2 meeting. Almería at home are expected to take the initiative, with Burgos CF looking to stay organised and threaten on transitions.

Lineup Impact

Confirmed shapes of 4-2-3-1 for Almería and 4-4-2 for Burgos CF underline where this game is decided: the wide areas and the battle for second balls. With starters locked in, there are no late selection surprises to reprice the market - the tactical picture above is the one that will play out.

Betting Verdict

Our verdict is Home Win at 1.61, rated a 75% probability. As with every pick, the full reasoning trail and the final result are published in our open results archive once the match concludes.

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Community Prediction

Who will secure the result today?

Match Momentum Engine
Possession
69
31
Exp. Goals
2.20
1.04
Total Shots
25
8
Projected Starting Lineups - Waiting Confirmation

Almería

1Andrés Fernández
2Marcos Luna
21Chumi
18Federico Bonini
15Leonardo Lelo
6Mikel Vesga
14Javi Muñoz
12Léo Baptistão
11Sergio Arribas
17Brian Cipenga
9Thalys

Substitutes

33Quim Junyent
22Daijiro Chirino
23Adrián Embarba
24Miguel de la Fuente
3Álex Muñoz
31Áron Yaakobishvili
13Fernando Martínez
5Jorge Pulido
26Kassoum Kone
20Álex Sola
7Jon Morcillo
10Nico Melamed

Burgos CF

13Ander Cantero
23Alberto Dadie
15Oier Luengo
18Saúl del Cerro
22Brais Martínez
14David González
20José Gragera
12Unai Vencedor
19Javi Llabrés
7Jon Karrikaburu
16Curro Sánchez

Substitutes

2Álex Lizancos
3Ignasi Vilarrasa
9Alex Forés
4Pablo Galdames
11Víctor Mollejo
35Diego González
30Marc Monedero
36Iván Martínez
21Fermín García
17Mario Cantero
24Santiago Lencina

Shot Map

Every attempt · all attacks toward the right goal

Almería · 21 · 1.09 xGBurgos CF · 8 · 1.04 xG
2' Unai Vencedor — Miss, 0.04 xG9' Javi Llabrés — AttemptSaved, 0.02 xG25' David González — AttemptSaved, 0.01 xG40' Jon Karrikaburu — Goal, 0.59 xG47' Javi Llabrés — Miss, 0.04 xG50' Javi Llabrés — AttemptSaved, 0.05 xG67' Álex Lizancos — AttemptSaved, 0.27 xG90' Alex Forés — Miss, 0.03 xG11' Javi Muñoz — Miss, 0.09 xG14' Léo Baptistão — AttemptSaved, 0.05 xG15' Léo Baptistão — AttemptSaved, 0.04 xG17' Sergio Arribas — AttemptSaved, 0.04 xG29' Javi Muñoz — Miss, 0.02 xG30' Brian Cipenga — AttemptSaved, 0.01 xG32' Sergio Arribas — AttemptSaved, 0.08 xG32' Federico Bonini — Miss, 0.02 xG36' Brian Cipenga — Miss, 0.06 xG44' Thalys — Miss, 0.03 xG45' Léo Baptistão — Miss, 0.02 xG56' Quim Junyent — AttemptSaved, 0.10 xG57' Sergio Arribas — Miss, 0.02 xG67' Adrián Embarba — Miss, 0.05 xG70' Sergio Arribas — AttemptSaved, 0.07 xG73' Daijiro Chirino — AttemptSaved, 0.02 xG74' Miguel de la Fuente — AttemptSaved, 0.07 xG74' Adrián Embarba — Miss, 0.05 xG84' Miguel de la Fuente — Goal, 0.05 xG87' Daijiro Chirino — Miss, 0.12 xG90' Adrián Embarba — Miss, 0.08 xG

Ringed dots are goals. Hover any dot for minute, player, shot type and expected goals (xG).

Almería vs Burgos CF Questions

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