The implied probability for Over 1.5 at 1.25 odds is 80%. Considering UD Oliveirense's poor form (3 losses, 1 draw in last 5) and Chaves' mid-table position (13th vs 18th), it's highly probable that at least two goals will be scored. Liga Portugal 2 matches often feature enough goal action for this low total. The estimated real probability is 87%, yielding a positive value edge of +8.8%. This strong edge combined with the general likelihood of Over 1.5 makes it a confident, low-risk 'Safe Core Pick'.